A melanoma risk score in a Brazilian population *

BACKGROUND Important risk factors for cutaneous melanoma (CM) are recognized, but standardized scores for individual assessment must still be developed. OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to develop a risk score of CM for a Brazilian sample. METHODS To verify the estimates of the main risk factors for melanoma, derived from a meta-analysis (Italian-based study), and externally validate them in a population in southern Brazil by means of a case-control study. A total of 117 individuals were evaluated. Different models were constructed combining the summary coefficients of different risk factors, derived from the meta-analysis, multiplied by the corresponding category of each variable for each participant according to a mathematical expression. RESULTS the variable that best predicted the risk of CM in the studied population was hair color (AUC: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.62-0.79). Other important factors were freckles, sunburn episodes, and skin and eye color. Consideration of other variables such as common nevi, elastosis, family history, and premalignant lesions did not improve the predictive ability of the models. CONCLUSION The discriminating capacity of the proposed model proved to be superior or comparable to that of previous risk models proposed for CM.